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1) Brief

2) Signals

3) Levels

4) Context

5) News

⚡ SECOND-ROUND EXPANSION CONFIRMED — MEQ4/5/6 locked from original PMH/PML range. PDL landed 1.09 pips from MEQ4 same session it broke.

⚡ FIRST M15 ZONE READ UNDER NEW PROTOCOL — Verified Sup (Retests=1) sits 1.88 pips off EQ2. Two confirming pivots also anchor here. Primary scores 7/8.

✓ EQ1/MEQ3 confirmed broken — M15 shows that exact cluster as Turncoat Res now. Wednesday's continuation thesis played out in full.

Sydney

—

5:00pm – 2:00am EST

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Tokyo

—

7:00pm – 4:00am EST

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London

—

3:00am – 12:00pm EST

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New York

—

8:30am – 5:00pm EST

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PDC (Wed close)

3,999.78

8.50p above EQ2 — Direct Hit

PDH

4,114.75

Inside broken retest zone

PDL

3,958.07

31.92p from EQ3

ATR(14)

—

200 EMA

—

Overhead

50 EMA

—

Declining

Analyst Notes

▸Monthly trigger needs one more input. Price closing below the monthly quartile is confirmed on M15 — MEQ3 is now marked Turncoat Res. Need actual Monthly High/Low to build the next MEQ set per Sec 14. Rest of tonight's brief is unaffected.

▸Wednesday's continuation thesis played out completely. EQ1/MEQ3 cluster (4,055–4,071) is now confirmed Turncoat Res on M15 — broke through and flipped from support to resistance.

▸EQ2 is the strongest confluence read of the cycle. Four independent confirmations within ~16 pips: the weekly expansion level, two confirming pivots, and an M15 Verified Sup zone within 1.88 pips. First Dense Stack + Zone Test Confirmation combo since the new rules went live.

▸The bounce is already visible on the chart. M15 and H1 both show recovery candles off the recent low at this exact zone — first brief under the restored M15 protocol, and it caught a real demand reaction.

▸H4 isn't echoing as clearly as H1 — shows stabilization, not a strong reversal candle yet. Scored honestly as neutral, still enough for the multi-TF point since nothing contradicts.

▸ATR continues easing — 83.06, below 90-day average. No volatility cap. Full 1.00 lot warranted if the next candle confirms.

▸Weekly budget: 0/2. First genuinely high-conviction long of the week after three straight bearish days.

Primary Signal — Live

LONG ↑

Reversal · EQ2 + M15 Verified Sup (1.88p) + 2 confirming pivots

ZONE STATUS

✓ TESTED, HOLDING

M15 already shows the bounce off 3,972.95–3,989.40 (Verified Sup, Retests=1), echoed on H1. Entry on continuation of this hold, body closing back above the zone.

ENTRY 1

3,995.00

0.50 lot · confirmation

ENTRY 2

3,985.00

0.50 lot · deeper in zone

STOP

Your placement

Below 3,972 zone floor

TP1

4,056.41

EQ1 / Turncoat Res (~61–71 pips)

TP2 — Move E2 stop to entry after TP1

4,114.75

PDH / broken retest zone (~120–130 pips)

Conviction Score7/8

1.00 LOT — FULL SIZEAlready confirming on chart

Weekly bias (COT conflict)+1

Confluence Density (EQ2 + 2 pivots, Dense Stack)+2

Zone Test Confirmation (M15, anchored)+1

Multi-timeframe agreement+1

PD stack (PDC vs EQ2, 8.50p)+1

Clean candle confirmation+1

⚡ Highest-confluence setup of the cycle. Bounce already visible; next candle close locks it in.

Contingency — Logged

SHORT ↓

Continuation · EQ2 zone fails, targets EQ3

If the Verified Sup zone breaks instead of holding — M15 close below 3,972.95 with a bearish continuation candle. Activates only if Primary invalidates.

ENTRY 1

3,965.00

0.25 lot · breakdown

ENTRY 2

3,955.00

0.25 lot · confirmation

STOP

Your placement

Above 3,991 EQ2

TP1

3,926.15

EQ3 (~29–39 pips)

Conviction Score4/8

STAND DOWN — BELOW 6 MINprice currently bouncing

Weekly bias (COT conflict)+1

Confluence Density (same level, opposite read)+2

Zone Test — would be Invalidation, not Confirmed+0

Multi-TF — currently shows recovery+0

PD stack+1

Score 4 — NOT EXECUTABLE. Price action currently contradicts this direction.

Level Map

Key EMAs

50 EMA—Far overhead

200 EMA—⚠ RESISTANCE

Weekly Expansion Quartiles (Sec 14)

EQ14,056.41Broken — now Turncoat Res

EQ23,991.28LIVE TEST — PRIMARY ZONE

EQ33,926.15Next target if EQ2 fails

Broken Structure (context)

WOR Low / Weekly Low4,136.29 / 4,121.54Retested, confirmed broken

MEQ1 / MEQ24,263.64 / 4,162.32Both broken

MEQ34,060.99Broken — second round confirmed

MEQ43,959.16PDL Direct Hit (1.09p)

MEQ53,857.33Next extension target

MEQ63,755.51Deep cycle floor

⚡ DENSE STACK: EQ2 + 2 confirming pivots within 20p + M15 Verified Sup (1.88p) — four confirmations, one level

Zone Test Confirmation M15, Derek's markup — outcomes only

Today's PD Levels

PDH4,114.75Inside broken retest zone

PDM4,036.41Mid today's range

PDC3,999.78EQ2 Direct Hit (8.50p)

PDL3,958.07Between EQ2/EQ3

Confirming Pivots — Anchored to EQ2

Wkly Camarilla S44,007.4416.16p from EQ2

Wkly Classic S23,975.8015.48p from EQ2

M15 Zone Outcomes

4,055 — 4,072

EQ1/MEQ3 — Turncoat Res

Confirmed broken, was support, now resistance

Failed

3,973 — 3,989

EQ2 — Verified Sup, Retests=1

Tested, bouncing — H1 echoes the recovery

✓ HELD (so far)

V · 1x

            First brief under the restored M15 protocol — outcomes only, never boundaries.
          

Context Layer DXY & Yield live

DXY Loading...BULLISH

10Y Yield Loading...BULLISH

Weekly StateEQ1 broken, EQ2 being tested nowACTIVE

Monthly StateMEQ4/5/6 locked (PMH 4,773.28/PML 4,365.97)ACTIVE

Trend50 EMA below 200 EMA — bearish structureBEARISH

VolatilityATR below 90d avg — cap liftedNORMALIZED

ATR(14) Loading...EASING

COT Bias+105,863 net long (cutoff 6/9) — conflictCONFLICT

Price Action Read H4 + H1, plus M15 zone outcomes

H1Clear recovery candles off the recent low at EQ2RECOVERING

H4Stabilizing at Turncoat Sup, no fresh breakdown candleNEUTRAL

M15 ZoneVerified Sup tested, holding so farCONFIRMS

Multi-TFH1 clear, H4 neutral (not contradicting)MIXED-BULL

First brief reading M15 zone outcomes alongside H4/H1 price action. The EQ2 bounce is genuine — confirmed by a real demand zone, not just candle shape alone.

Red Folder News — Week of Jun 22–26 Static · Updated Fridays · Source: Forex Factory

Mon Jun 22No major USD red-folder printCLEAR

Tue Jun 23Flash Mfg/Services PMI, Richmond Mfg Index — medium tier, no red folderCLEAR

Wed Jun 24 (today)New Home Sales, Crude Inventories, Bank Stress Test — no red folderCLEAR

Thu Jun 25, 8:30am ESTCore PCE Price Index m/m (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) — fc 0.3%, prev 0.2%RED FOLDER

Thu Jun 25, 8:30am ESTSame slot: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders — medium tier, adds to the volatility windowSAME SLOT

Fri Jun 26Goods Trade Balance, Revised UoM Sentiment, FOMC speakers (Williams, Kashkari) — no red folderCLEAR

Sourcing note: EODHD's economic events endpoint remains 403 at the current plan tier (Section 8). This block is pulled from Forex Factory directly. Impact-level color coding (red/orange/yellow) didn't extract as text from the page — classifications above are calibrated from standard Forex Factory conventions for these event types, not a direct color read. Core PCE is the one unambiguous red-folder print this week. Treat the rest as a best-effort read, not a guarantee.

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