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Victor Allyn Capital · LBXP Fund
VAC // XAUUSD QUANT BRIEF
Daily Brief · Live Data Feed Active
AUM
$881,530
Return Inception
+19.99%
Annualized
+9.54%
Max Drawdown
−10.34%
Win Rate
43.01%
Track Record
2.0 yrs
Investors
8
June 19, 2026
Friday — Juneteenth, Thin Liquidity
XAUUSD · Live Spot
Connecting...
1) Brief
2) Signals
3) Levels
4) Context
5) News
⚡ MAJOR CONFLUENCE — Q3 (4,278.02) + MEQ1 (4,263.64) + PDM (4,265.45) + pivots all stack in a tight 4,245–4,288 band.
✓ DUAL S/D CONFIRMATION — H1 Turncoat Sup + M15 Verified Sup (1 retest) both span 4,208–4,242 — exactly where price closed (PDC 4,208.62).
⚠ Juneteenth holiday — reduced US participation. ATR easing toward 90-day average. 0.50 lot cap maintained.
Sydney
5:00pm – 2:00am EST
Tokyo
7:00pm – 4:00am EST
London
3:00am – 12:00pm EST
New York
8:30am – 5:00pm EST
PDC (Thu close)
4,208.62
In confirmed S/D sup
PDH
4,329.88
Capped by M15 Verified Res
PDL
4,201.01
Direct Hit vs Q2 (8.01p)
ATR(14)
Loading...
200 EMA
Overhead
50 EMA
Declining
Analyst Notes
Strongest confluence cluster of the week sits at 4,263–4,278. Q3 (4,278.02), MEQ1 (4,263.64) and today's PDM (4,265.45) sit within 14 pips of each other — PDM lands 1.81 pips from MEQ1, the tightest stack this cycle. Daily Fib S1 (4,287.98), Daily Classic S2 (4,255.81) and Weekly Fib S1 (4,244.996) add further confluence. M15 Untested Res (4,268–4,277) sits directly inside it — this is TP1.
First true dual-timeframe S/D confirmation in days. H1 Turncoat Sup and M15 Verified Sup (1 retest) both span 4,208–4,242, and price closed Thursday at 4,208.62 — right at the zone floor. Weekly Classic S1 (4,231.73) sits inside it too.
Thursday was a full round trip. Price rallied off the FOMC-crash low, tagged M15 Verified Res (4,320–4,338) almost exactly at PDH (4,329.88), got rejected, and sold back into the support zone it's now sitting in. Both ends of the range are S/D-verified.
ATR easing below its 90-day average. EODHD ATR(14) reads ~90.5 against a computed 90-day average of ~104.9. 0.50 lot cap held as a conservative measure for the holiday session rather than reverting size on one day's read.
Juneteenth — thin session, no aggressive sizing. Iran deal signs in Switzerland today; with US desks light, reaction may be muted. Patience for a genuine hold/break candle matters more than usual.
Weekly budget: 0/2. Both trades available. One clean trade at 6+ conviction is the goal — confirmed dual-timeframe support gives Primary a real shot today.
Primary Signal — Watch
LONG ↑
H1 Turncoat Sup + M15 Verified Sup (CONFIRMED both TF)
S/D STATUS
✓ CONFIRMED BOTH TF
Hold/reversal candle inside 4,208–4,242 · M15 close back above zone · Weekly Classic S1 (4,231.73) inside zone as added confluence
ENTRY 1
4,215.00
0.25 lot · zone mid
ENTRY 2
4,210.00
0.25 lot · near PDC
STOP
Your placement
Below zone floor (~4,200)
TP1
4,265.45
PDM / MEQ1 / Q3 cluster
TP2 — Move E2 stop to entry after TP1
4,329.88
PDH / M15 Verified Res (~115–120 pips)
Conviction Score6/8
0.50 LOT MAX — HOLIDAY THIN5 pre-trigger — score on candle
Weekly bias (COT conflict applied)+1
S/D confluence — H1 + M15 CONFIRMED+2
Multi-timeframe agreement+1
PD stack (PDM→MEQ1, 1.81p)+1
Clean candle confirmation+1
⚠ WATCH, not a fire. 5 pre-candle = stand down. Holiday liquidity — widen patience for a clean hold candle.
Contingency — Logged
SHORT ↓
Breakdown of confirmed support → Q2/MEQ2
S/D STATUS
✕ NO ZONE AT TRIGGER
M15 close below 4,205 breaking both H1 + M15 sup zones together · Bearish continuation candle. Activates only if Primary invalidates.
ENTRY 1
4,200.00
0.25 lot · breakdown
ENTRY 2
4,195.00
0.25 lot · near Q2
STOP
Your placement
Above broken zone (~4,215)
TP1
4,193.00
Q2 pivot (partial only)
TP2 — Move E2 stop to entry after TP1
4,162.32
MEQ2 monthly expansion
Conviction Score4/8
STAND DOWN — BELOW 6 MINlogged for awareness only
Weekly bias (COT conflict)+1
Multi-timeframe agreement (both break together)+1
PD stack (PDL→Q2, 8.01p)+1
Clean candle confirmation+1
S/D confluence at breakdown trigger+0
Score 4 — NOT EXECUTABLE. Dead if Primary triggers and stops out.
Level Map
Key EMAs
50 EMAFar overhead
200 EMA⚠ RESISTANCE

Weekly Quartiles
Weekly High ref4,363.03Resistance
Q3 (75%)4,278.02CONFLUENCE
Q2 (50%) PIVOT4,193.00PIVOT
Q1 (25%)4,107.99Support

PD Levels (Darwinex)
PDH4,329.88Inside M15 Verified Res
PDC (Thu close)4,208.62In confirmed sup
PDM4,265.45MEQ1 Direct Hit (1.81p)
PDL4,201.01Q2 Direct Hit (8.01p)

Monthly Expansion
Monthly Low4,365.97Broken
MEQ14,263.64CONFLUENCE
MEQ24,162.32Contingency target
MEQ34,060.99= H1 Untested Sup

Pivot Confluence — EODHD (no score, narrative only)
Daily Fib S14,287.989.96p from Q3
Daily Classic S24,255.817.83p from MEQ1
Weekly Fib S14,244.99618.64p from MEQ1
Daily Classic R14,339.179.29p from PDH
Weekly Classic S14,231.73Inside S/D sup zone
⚡ DIRECT HIT: PDM 4,265.45 within 1.81 pips of MEQ1 4,263.64 — tightest stack of the week
⚠ DIRECT HIT: PDL 4,201.01 within 8.01 pips of Q2 4,193.00
S/D Confluence — Zone Map
H1 Zones
4,378 — 4,400+
Resistance · Untested · far overhead
Untested
4,208 — 4,242
Support · Turncoat
PDC sits at the floor of this zone
✓ AT PRICE — overlaps M15 Verified Sup
Turncoat
4,037 — 4,058
Support · Untested · aligns with MEQ3
Untested

M15 Zones
4,320 — 4,338
Resistance · Verified, 1 retest
PDH 4,329.88 capped here
V · 1x
4,268 — 4,277
Resistance · Untested
Inside Q3/MEQ1/PDM cluster — this is TP1
Untested
4,208 — 4,234
Support · Verified, 1 retest
Overlaps H1 Turncoat Sup exactly
✓ CONFIRMED H1+M15 — primary entry
V · 1x ⬆
Full round trip Thu: rejected at M15 Verified Res / PDH, sold back into confirmed H1+M15 support where it closed.
Context Layer DXY & Yield live
DXY Loading...BULLISH
10Y Yield Loading...BULLISH
Macro BiasIran deal easing inflation risk · DXY firmingMIXED
SessionJuneteenth — reduced US participationHOLIDAY
Trend50 EMA below 200 EMA — bearish structureBEARISH
ATR(14) Loading...EASING
COT BiasMM +112K net long (stale, 6/2) — conflictCONFLICT
EODHD FlagJun 18 daily bar mismatch vs Darwinex — see notesDATA GAP
Session Schedule
All DayUS Juneteenth holiday — thin liquidity, wider spreadsCAUTION
Live entryLevels + S/D + candle confirmation — standard frameworkLIVE
FridayUS-Iran deal signing — Switzerland (Hormuz reopening)EVENT
3:30pm ESTCOT Report (cutoff Jun 9) releases — pending, not in this briefCOT
4:45pm ESTHard close — no overnight holdsCLOSE
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