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1) Brief

2) Signals

3) Levels

4) Context

5) News

⚠ WEEKLY EXPANSION TRIGGERED — Price closed below the locked Weekly Low (4,121.54). Standard quartile grid replaced. New EQ1/2/3 calculated (Sec 14).

⚡ TRIPLE CONFLUENCE AT TARGET — EQ1 (4,056.41) + MEQ3 (4,060.99) + Monthly Camarilla S3 (4,053.46) converge within 7.5 pips.

⚠ WOR also broken — both WOR Low and old Weekly Low taken out. Per Sec 5A: do not chase. Wait for retest to hold as resistance.

Sydney

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5:00pm – 2:00am EST

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Tokyo

—

7:00pm – 4:00am EST

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London

—

3:00am – 12:00pm EST

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New York

—

8:30am – 5:00pm EST

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PDC (Tue close)

4,109.44

12.10p below old Wkly Low

PDH

4,198.33

Inside broken range

PDL

4,090.57

34.16p from EQ1

ATR(14)

—

200 EMA

—

Overhead

50 EMA

—

Declining

Analyst Notes

▸Two standing structures broke the same day. WOR Low (4,136.29) and the Weekly Low (4,121.54) both gave way today. Section 5A's WOR Broken state and Section 14's Expansion Protocol are both active simultaneously, same direction.

▸Target cluster is the standout. New EQ1 (4,056.41), standing MEQ3 (4,060.99), and Monthly Camarilla S3 (4,053.46) land within 7.5 pips of each other — three independent methods, same number.

▸Price action is genuinely clean. H4 and H1 both show a full-bodied breakdown through the entire Mon–Tue range, no rejection wicks. Reads as real continuation — but per Sec 5A, the retest is still the trigger, not the candle.

▸Primary scores 7 on confirmation — highest of the cycle. PDM landed an 8.16-pip Direct Hit on WOR Low, PDC landed 12.10 pips from the old Weekly Low.

▸ATR continues easing — still below 90-day average. No volatility cap. Full 1.00 lot on the table if the retest confirms clean.

▸DXY firmed a fourth straight read (99.54→100.09→100.85→101.02). Incremental headwind, consistent with the bearish case.

▸Weekly budget: 0/2. Strong structural read, zero of it executable without the actual retest candle. Patience is the job today.

Primary Signal — Watch for Retest

SHORT ↓

Continuation · retest of broken WOR Low + Weekly Low holding as resistance

Do NOT chase today's breakdown candle. Wait for price to retest 4,121–4,136 from below · rejection candle on H1, echoed on H4 · body closes back below the zone confirming it now holds as resistance

ENTRY 1

4,130.00

0.50 lot · mid retest zone

ENTRY 2

4,122.00

0.50 lot · old Weekly Low

STOP

Your placement

Above WOR Mid 4,178

TP1

4,090.57

PDL (~32–46 pips)

TP2 — Move E2 stop to entry after TP1

4,060.99

MEQ3/EQ1/Camarilla cluster (~61–78 pips)

Conviction Score7/8

1.00 LOT — FULL SIZE ON CONFIRMATION5 pre-trigger

Weekly bias (COT conflict)+1

Confluence Density (WOR Low + Weekly Low, Stack)+1

Multi-timeframe agreement (H4+H1 clean bearish)+1

PD stack (PDC vs old Wkly Low, 12.10p)+1

WOR/quartile confluence+1

Clean candle confirmation+1

WOR retest holds (Sec 5A)+1

⚡ No retest yet today — watch, not fire. Highest score of the cycle once it confirms.

Contingency — Logged

LONG ↑

Reclaim · failed breakdown back above WOR Low / Weekly Low

Daily close back above 4,136.29 with a clear reclaim candle on H1/H4 — would suggest today's breakdown was exhaustion. Activates only if Primary invalidates.

ENTRY 1

4,140.00

0.25 lot · reclaim confirm

ENTRY 2

4,150.00

0.25 lot · momentum confirm

STOP

Your placement

Below 4,121 old Weekly Low

TP1

4,178.43

WOR Mid (~28–38 pips)

TP2 — Move E2 stop to entry after TP1

4,220.56

WOR High (~70–80 pips)

Conviction Score4/8

STAND DOWN — BELOW 6 MINno reclaim signs currently

Weekly bias (COT conflict)+1

Confluence Density (same zone, opposite read)+1

Multi-TF — H4/H1 show no reclaim signs+0

PD stack (PDC vs old Wkly Low)+1

WOR/quartile confluence+1

Clean candle confirmation+1

Score 4–5 — NOT EXECUTABLE. Zero reclaim character today. Logged for awareness only.

Level Map

Key EMAs

50 EMA—Far overhead

200 EMA—⚠ RESISTANCE

Broken Structure (context only)

Weekly High4,382.06Far overhead

Q3 / Q2 / Q14,316.93 / 4,251.80 / 4,186.67Replaced

Weekly Low (broken)4,121.54RETEST ZONE

WOR Low (broken)4,136.29RETEST ZONE

WOR Mid4,178.43Reclaim target if wrong

Monthly Expansion (unchanged)

MEQ1 / MEQ24,263.64 / 4,162.32Both broken

MEQ34,060.99TARGET CLUSTER

NEW Weekly Expansion Quartiles (Sec 14)

EQ14,056.41TARGET CLUSTER

EQ23,991.28Extension target

EQ33,926.15Deep cycle floor

⚡ TARGET CLUSTER: EQ1 + MEQ3 (4.58p, Dense Stack) + Mthly Camarilla S3 4,053.46 — three systems within 7.5p

⚡ RETEST ZONE: WOR Low + Weekly Low (14.75p) + Wkly Camarilla S4 4,154.06 (anchored)

Power Zones — PD Levels & Pivot Confluence

Today's PD Levels

PDH4,198.33Inside broken range

PDM4,144.45WOR Low Direct Hit (8.16p)

PDC4,109.44Wkly Low Direct Hit (12.10p)

PDL4,090.5734.16p from EQ1 — Stack

Pivot Confluence — Secondary (anchored)

Mthly Camarilla S34,053.462.95p from EQ1

Wkly Camarilla S44,154.0617.77p from WOR Low

Wkly Woodie S24,110.380.94p from PDC

⚡ Target Cluster — 4,053–4,061

EQ1 (weekly expansion) + MEQ3 (monthly expansion) + Monthly Camarilla S3 (pivot) — three independent calculation methods within 7.5 pips of each other.

Retest Zone — 4,121–4,136

Both WOR Low and the old Weekly Low broke today. Per Section 5A, the entry is the retest holding as resistance, not the breakout candle itself.

Context Layer DXY & Yield live

DXY Loading...BULLISH

10Y Yield Loading...BULLISH

WOR StateBROKEN — wait for retest, don't chaseEXPANSION

Weekly StateEXPANSION — new EQ1/2/3 active (Sec 14)EXPANSION

Trend50 EMA below 200 EMA — bearish structureBEARISH

VolatilityATR below 90d avg — cap liftedNORMALIZED

ATR(14) Loading...EASING

COT Bias+105,863 net long (cutoff 6/9) — conflictCONFLICT

Price Action Read H4 + H1, no S/D — Derek's own

H1Decisive breakdown candle through Mon/Tue rangeMOMENTUM

H4Continues May–June downtrend, no reversal signsCONTINUATION

Multi-TFH4 and H1 fully agree — clean bearish characterCONFIRMED

ReadReal momentum, not a wick — genuine breakGENUINE

Full-bodied breakdown through the entire Mon–Tue consolidation range (4,136–4,192), no wicking at the level. Reads as genuine continuation. Per Sec 5A, the entry is the retest, not the chase.

Red Folder News — Week of Jun 22–26 Static · Updated Fridays · Source: Forex Factory

Mon Jun 22No major USD red-folder printCLEAR

Tue Jun 23Flash Mfg/Services PMI, Richmond Mfg Index — medium tier, no red folderCLEAR

Wed Jun 24 (today)New Home Sales, Crude Inventories, Bank Stress Test — no red folderCLEAR

Thu Jun 25, 8:30am ESTCore PCE Price Index m/m (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) — fc 0.3%, prev 0.2%RED FOLDER

Thu Jun 25, 8:30am ESTSame slot: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders — medium tier, adds to the volatility windowSAME SLOT

Fri Jun 26Goods Trade Balance, Revised UoM Sentiment, FOMC speakers (Williams, Kashkari) — no red folderCLEAR

Sourcing note: EODHD's economic events endpoint remains 403 at the current plan tier (Section 8). This block is pulled from Forex Factory directly. Impact-level color coding (red/orange/yellow) didn't extract as text from the page — classifications above are calibrated from standard Forex Factory conventions for these event types, not a direct color read. Core PCE is the one unambiguous red-folder print this week. Treat the rest as a best-effort read, not a guarantee.

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